Oil Market

energy investors were starting to throw in the towel but buyers stepped in -> a big hammer candle stick. It’s a buy signal. in at ~46, stop at ~41. Could it goes down more than 41? sure It’s probable likely goes up. Fundamental: “Technology does not create energy. Technology is simply a way to convert energy, or to convert resources, into work. So, you can improve the technology and basically it allows you to turn the faucet on harder. It…

Seasonality & Cyclicality

Understanding the background of a market will greatly enhance your understanding long-term market direction and reduce the likelihood of surprises when trading. These background influences should be thoroughly researched every weekend while some should also be updated daily before trading. This entry can be classified under Weekend Research and Preparation. What is being covered will rarely effect your trading, but could be the reason for major losses if your pre-trading preparation is not thorough. Seasonality vs. Cycles In most cases,…

Automated Trading

I spent over 1.5 years coding and backtesting 100s of strategies. I did not find a universal winner. Sure, some systems were good for a time, some were really good, most were really bad. Even among the winners, many had win ratios no better than random, and they were only profitable because they won more pips than they lost (i.e. R:R > 1). Of those strategies that performed really good – on closer inspection it was usually because the backtest…

Trump is ‘unpredictable’ , like the Weather

Trump himself change and uncertainty in his first major foreign policy address in April, saying he would “shake the rust off America’s foreign policy” and that the US would “have to be unpredictable, and we have to be unpredictable starting now.” 2/10: Trump said Gore should be stripped of Nobel Prize because it’s cold outside. 5/2016:Trump wanted to build a sea wall to protect his resort from global warming. 3/17:Trump plans to cut to climate research because it’s “a waste of…

No Tradestation for me

The other day, I tried to open a Trade Station account. They asked me if I have 5000 liquid asset and fax in documents to prove that I do. 1> Trade Station advertises you open can open an account with 500usd. 2> Trade Station is a market maker/broker. They will trade against you using their trading desk. 3> their software is nothing special (ok, I don’t program because I believe I can’t beat companies with unlimited resources. auto trade is…

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited

Ticket: Teva Entry: 32.50 Stop 31 Target: 37 This trade is purely technical. Teva is at support (demand) level. The trend is down. Counter trend trade stop must be small. Target must be large because the probability of winning is low. Trend trade must use lager stop and small profit targets. But winning percentage is high. If you like to win most of the time, trade with the trend.

Exxon Mobil Corporation

XOM entry:80.8 Stop:80 Target:87 or more This is a counter trend trade, which means reward/risk is very good but low probability. Xom is at a strong support level. Oil is at a low price level. Could oil goes lower? yes. but if lower than $45 many drillers/producers loose money. -> reduce supply. Jerry Brown suggest 42% gas tax hike and $65 registration increase in California. Many blue states already increase gas tax. AAA projects the national average for a gallon of…

Lumber Liquidator

LL buy: 19.07 stop: 17.35 target 24 In 58, if ll hits my stop -> loose 100usd. LL breaks out. It will continue to go up until it hits resistant at around 19.8. Some people may wait for a pull back or consolidation at resistant area. I’m working full time. I don’t have time to monitor my trades. I set them and occasionally monitor them.  

Teen Lied About Earning $72M on Stock Market

New York Magazine ran a story about a Stuyvesant High School senior, told that he had earned millions of dollars by trading. But after story went viral, he quickly backtracked. Around 90s, there was a rags-to-riches millionaire trader Michael “Waxie” Parness. Here is the complaint lodged by the National Futures Association against Scott Littlefield, Michael Parness and his hedge fund, Trend Fund Management. Take note of how they accuse them of misleading investors with testimonials that are not documented, but used to lure…