Natural Gas

price: 2.7

target: 3

stop: 2.62

Bear case: A fifteen-day weather forecast shifted moderately warmer.

Bull case: producers stop pumping.

My case: I don’t know which way it will go. Technically, it hits support. It will bounce around this support level. Then it will move up, or down. Nobody knows for sure.

If you’re a counter trend trader, the risk is small but reward is huge. However, your winning percentage will be less than 50%. You have to cut your loss quick.

If you’re a trend trader, risk/reward is not good. You have to use a wide stop. But your winning percentage is high. It will give u the confident to pull the trigger for the next trade.

This is a counter trend trade.

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