As you can see, we rallied up to the weekly 50 MA (in black) and pierced above it. However, BTC has now pulled back below the weekly 50 MA. It will be interesting to see where this candle closes. I am expecting it to close below the black moving average. From there, I am expecting to see price create a head and shoudlers pattern. You can see that we have what looks like half of a pattern right now, with a possible left shoulder, leading in to what could be the head. So, we did get the golden cross, and we did get the spike up like we saw in 2015. Now, we need to see if price will ultimately return to the downside here. Personally, I’m expecting BTC to return to at least the 4200 range, and possibly even lower.
The upside is now becoming more and more limited, while the indicators are flashing sell signals, and showing signs of exhaustion. I really doubt that there is much upside left, if any at all. We’ve rallied 80% from the low, and we are becoming increasingly due for a pullback in the coming weeks. In 2015, Bitcoin rallied 93% from the low to the high that pierced the hit the weekly 50 MA. So, this rally has been similar in percentage terms, and nearly identical in it’s movement. So, until we see a major deviation, there is no reason to believe that price won’t continue to follow the same general movement patterns that we saw in 2015.
Remember, it took months and months of testing for BTC to break down below the 6000 area. It is extrememly unlikely that BTC would be able to surpass it without some potentially big failures on the way back up.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***