Candlestick

I do not trade individual candles/bars. I trade a series, or array, to the general direction of price over time. The single candle or bar doesn’t matter at all. While it is true there are instances of pin bars/candles that hold, and perhaps doji’s are accurate sometimes, the rest is too precise for the time frame I trade. The time frame that “might” be accurate for candlesticks is so low in profit potential that it is ridiculous to trade it, unless you are a position trader (investor). I could trade every trade without even seeing a single candlestick.

Quote from Bulkowski’s website…
“A study using nearly 14,000 chart patterns covering the years from 1991 to 2008 shows that chart patterns fail between two and four times more often now than they did in the past. For example, the average failure rate of chart patterns to climb at least 10% in the 1990s bull market was 14%. During the bull market years of 2003 to 2007, the failure rate had doubled to 28%.

Downward breakouts showed a similar trend with the average 10% failure rate rising from 26% in the 1990s to 49% during the bull market years of the 2000s.

Here is a more extreme example. In 1991 the 10% failure rate was 11% but peaked at 44% in 2007. In other words, four times as many chart patterns failed to show post breakout rises of at least 10% in 2007 compared to 1991.”